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http://elitistjerks.com/f78/t64665-incoming_rogue_changes_discussion/p25/#post1459569Now copied here:
So, I've been spending some time the last day or two poking at the Combat spreadsheet and working through the implications of the new gear and set bonuses. While I don't have everything modeled at this point (notable omissions at this points are Needle-Encrusted Scorpion, Black Bruise, and Deathbringer's Will), I can make some early comments on what we're going to see moving into Icecrown.
The first important thing to note is that all Icecrown gear to date is *incredibly* hit starved. Literally none of the new gear has hit on it. The best gear set I've found out of the known gear only has 108 hit on it, meaning that every single yellow socket is using either Rigid or Accurate gems, and Precision is used as a glove enchant, just to get (almost) up to the spell hit cap.
The first implication of this is that, well, we'll need to be using a lot more hit gems and stuff - Glinting, Rigid, and Accurate. Which, honestly, isn't that big a deal.
The somewhat larger implication is in terms of the crit cap. With so little hit on gear - and so much crit and agility - the crit cap starts to be a very serious concern. Almost every gear setup I've entered is flirting with the crit softcap just due to Death's Verdict, and some of them are even pushing the crit hardcap. So that's something we're going to have to watch as we're gearing through Icecrown.
The *major* consequence of this is as follows: when I say "near the crit hardcap" - that's with a Hack and Slash setup. Which means that CQC builds are going to be, frankly, crippled. With all Hack and Slash builds softcapping - and some hardcapping - there simply isn't room to get another 5% crit from talents and have it be useful. I'm not going to say that CQC-based combat builds are dead, but they definitely have some major issues.
The second interesting piece of the puzzle is what happens to our EP values. With BIS gear and my usual settings, I get the following EP values:
Agi: 2.2
Crit: 1.99
White Hit: 1.93
Expertise: 2.33
Haste: 1.94
ArPen: 2.73
So what does this mean? Well, almost all our gear has Agi, AP, Sta, and 2 of the remaining 5 stats (Crit/Hit/Exp/Haste/ArPen). Of these "discretionary" stats, Expertise is capped which limits the number of Expertise pieces we can use. And of the other stats, Crit/Hit/Haste are all very very close in value, with ArPen significantly higher (and not particularly close to capping - 969 in the gear I have entered right now). Thus, the principal arbiter of the desirability of an item appears to be whether it has ArPen on it or not. That is, an item will seem "well itemized" if it has ArPen on it, and "poorly itemized" if it doesn't. When comparing two items of equal ilvl, the one with ArPen on it will almost always be better.
The other significant thing to look at is our set bonuses. Now, the 2/5 is pretty straightforward. It's a strong set bonus (227 EP in the BIS-so-far gear setup), and only takes two pieces, so everyone will be wanting to get it. Simple, really. The 4/5, however, is a bit more interesting.
The 4/5, as the moment, is scoring 112 EP with the best gearset I've put together. Which, while certainly not a *bad* set bonus, isn't precisely a *good* one either - it's not too uncommon for offset gear to eclipse set pieces by 50+ EP, which would result in a 2/5 + 3 offset setup. Thus the question: is it likely that such items will exist in T10?
Well, let's assume for the moment that Icecrown will work like ToC in this respect - that is, there will exist set items of the highest possible ilvl. As opposed to Ulduar and Naxx where offset pieces could be a full tier higher than their set counterparts, the existance of the Heroic Sanctified Shadowblade set implies that there will be both set and offset pieces of heroic ilvl (277). Thus, whether there exists a superior offset option appears to be a function of how well each is itemized. And looking at what's been released, we can make some conjectures on that point. The helm, chest, and shoulders all have ArPen, which, as previously noted, means they're likely to be good. Which means that the only two slots where it's likely that there will be a significantly superior offset item are legs and gloves.
However, we've *seen* the offset legs in nonheroic version. And comparing nonheroic T10 legs to nonheroic Gangrenous Leggings, we see that neither has ArPen. The major difference between the two is that the set piece has more Agility and Expertise in place of AP and Hit. And these are, in general, better stats. Thus, unless we're already expertise capped from other gear, it is likely that the set legs will likely either be BIS or close. Meanwhile, the gloves lack in ArPen, and there's a viable alternative which *does* have ArPen - notably, Aldriana's Gloves of Secrecy. Hence, our preliminary indication is that 4 of the 5 set pieces will be BIS or close, such that we'll wind up wearing Ald's Gloves + 4/5 T10.
Thus, we now have to consider what the 4/5 T10 does to our stat and cycle priorities. Well, fundamentally, the 4/5 T10 is making finishers cost less combo points - you still spend the CP, but you get more CP back on average than you did before, meaning that in effect you get more finishers off the same baseline CP generation. Thus, our damage is going to be coming more from finishers and less from other sources than it currently is. The major implication of which is that Relentless Strikes is going to become relatively stronger as a talent option; and, due to lowered hit rates, poison talents are somewhat weaker. As such, preliminary indications are that the move to Icecrown gear is going to favor 15/51/5 over 18/51/2 - and indeed, I show 15/51/5 to be about 100 DPS ahead of 18/51/2 is best known gear.
In summary: it appears that Combat rogues will be moving towards 15/51/5 Sword/Axe builds, with 4/5 T10, offset gloves, and lots of hit gems.
P.S.: Before anyone asks: no, I don't know when I'll have an updated Combat sheet for people. Nor do I know when I'll have similar estimates for Mutilate. While it's true that I'm between raiding guilds right now and thus have somewhat more time to work on this sort of thing than usual, it's also true that it's still subject to the usual constraints of "when I feel like working on it" so I will make no commitment as to when things will be ready.
